Modeling in ecology and evolution

Ecosystems are some of the most intricate systems in the universe, far outstripping the complexity of the galaxy’s motion or the properties of atomic nuclei.

In this Macrofun session, we discussed the extent to which theory and modelling can be used to cut through the thicket that is ecology. We discussed statistical models and whether they can be treated philosophically as null models of system behaviour, before moving on to the differences between ‘tactical’ (detailed, predictive models designed for ecosystem management and forecasting) and ‘strategic’ (heavily simplified models designed to enhance our understanding of general patterns) approaches.

Finally, we discussed emergence as a unifying paradigm in theory, in which basic underlying assumptions about a system are converted into complex emergent patterns through a dynamical process. These three components of emergence - assumptions, dynamics and patterns - were evaluated as a general way of classifying the focus of different theoretical studies.

You can find the slides here.